Scientists Found Guilty for not Predicting an Act of God

Today's post breaks from my usual themes on senior healthcare or dementia, but I feel very strongly about this issue. I know most people have other thoughts on their mind (like the US Presidential debate which Canadians seem to pay more attention to then their own elections!), but yesterday, scientists in Italy were found guilty of manslaughter for not predicting an earthquake!

Let me backtrack. In March 2009 a series of tremors were felt over four months in and around the quaint little city of L’Aquila, Italy. And by quaint I mean a medieval, picturesque city sitting in a known highly seismic zone, à la California. Six internationally renowned scientists and an engineer were called to analyze the risk posed by the tremors and predicted “no danger”. Emphasis on predicted. Six days later, a massive 6.3 earthquake hit L'Aquila destroying buildings and killing 309 people. Fast forward three years, the regional court finds all seven guilty of multiple manslaughter resting on the prosecutors case that they gave a falsely reassuring statement. In fact, they were given 6 years even though the prosecution was asking for 4.

First of all, my heart goes out to those people devastated by the earthquake. I can’t begin to imagine how it must feel to lose your city, home and loved ones in a matter of seconds. It was an absolute tragedy, but was it an avoidable one? Is the court really saying that scientists can be held accountable for incorrectly making a prediction about an act of God? Or is more about what they communicated? In all honesty, it’s not like an earthquake is a certainty, politely SOSing a little message ahead of time that it’s going to strike. It may or may not happen, very much like the appearance of sunshine in Vancouver. The whole process of science is about making predictions based on the information available. That’s exactly what those scientists did and given the low risk assessment, evacuation wasn’t necessary.

Unfortunately, cities sitting on seismic zones are pretty much waiting for an earthquake to happen. Its a conundrum that some of the most beautiful cities in the world are located in the most unstable areas. The people of L'Aquila suffered a tragedy and emotions fuel the need for retribution, an explanation for the unaccountable loss. But the scientists could not be blamed for this. Perhaps they should have communicated their thoughts to the public better, but even then they weren't holding back, they really didn't believe there was any danger. As a friend of mine put it, what if some poor soul can’t deal with the idea of relativity being blown apart? Them Gran Sasso boys better lawyer up, double time.